Forecasting the effects of autonomous vehicles on land use

The widespread availability of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) will likely affect social change in terms how people travel. Traditional methods travel demand land use modeling require vast amounts data that could be expensive to obtain. Such models complex software requires trained professionals configure hours run a single scenario. Alternative closed-form can quickly assess trends potential CAV impact on the regional for shopping, entertainment, or dining does not exist. This research developed model considers mode shift towards CAVs, possible changes propensity travel, shopping trip avoidance from e-commerce, greater accessibility non-drivers. Model parameter estimation based statistics Toronto area found population growth 2017 2050 alone increase by nearly 60%. However, CAVs double triple demand—implicating dynamic planning environmental considerations.